Current Commentary

Current Commentary2018-07-02T10:43:19-07:00

Living in retirement

Retirement Living may soon be challenged by Rising Inflation
Friday, July 16, 2010, saw the release of the consumer price index and as noted by Goldman Sachs analysts, while the index was actually down .14 percent in June and up only 1.1 percent for the past 12 months, "core inflation" was a bit stronger than the analysts had expected.  Of particular note was a rental index that rose .1 percent in the past month with "lodging away from home" up 1.3 percent.  This confirms what I have heard anecdotally that people are vacationing and travelling again and obviously willing to pay up for this privilege for the first time in a couple of years. A small piece of additional evidence entered my world this past weekend. When I called to cancel a reservation at the Cedar Lodge just outside Yosemite, they told me they were going to charge a $7.50 cancellation fee! This is a first for a hotel (rather a 2-3 star motel) in my experience, given they had a week's notice.  The travel industry rivals bankers in their assertion of garbage fees, and apparently they now feel confident in getting away this nonsense-witness the bag charges imposed recently by most major airlines!

By |July 19th, 2010|Financial Commentary - Public|

LeBron James’ Savvy Tax Move

LeBron James‘ Decision as a Leading Indicator
Is basketball star LeBron James’ departure from Cleveland to Miami a municipal bond story? It may be: James faces a 5.29% personal income tax rate in Ohio compared to no personal income tax in Florida. Also, Mr. James is actually part of a decades-long population trend. After the City of Cleveland’s population peaked in the 1960s, it has experienced a steady outflow of residents to this day. Today, the City is about half its peak size, with a population of 430,000. 
LeBron is far from the only sports star fleeing to low taxation states.  California has been steadily losing population to nearby Nevada, another state with no income tax.  California, along with labor friendly states like New York and Illinois hammers its most sucessful earners with a tax rate of 9.3%,yetis far from balancing its budget.  Most counties and cities in the state are in financial trouble as well, and there is one common denominator: California is the Golden state for public employees.  Over the past twenty five years, traditional pensions have all but disappeared from the private sector.  Today only about 12% of private sector workers can look toward a guaranteed pension at retirement.By contrast, 90% of public sector employees can look forward to a steady monthly income when they leave their challenging government jobs.  Public employee
 
By |July 10th, 2010|Financial Commentary - Public|

More Signs of Economic Recovery

MORE EVIDENCE THAT THE ECONOMY IS COMING BACK

 In an email to clients on May 25, I included a link to some graphs provided by the Value Line Statistical Service, which show that many widely followed financial indicators have been trending upward for months.  Now comes evidence from so-called “below-the-radar” indicators that confirm that a recovery is underway.  Bloomberg Business Week on June 15 reports that a number of oddball indicators show that the economy’s heartbeat is strengthening:

By |June 18th, 2010|Financial Commentary - Public|

Of Goldman, Greece and Grease

Who to blame for the mess we appear to be in? Greedy Wall Street bankers? Fatuous Europeans who expect to retire at age 55 after a lifetime of loafing? Inept oil drillers fouling America’s southern coastline? When times are tough you can count on politicians to score points by blaming everyone in sight, rarely noticing that many of our problems today are the results of legislation enacted by previous Congresses. No one seems to want to accept individual responsibility-it's always the Other Guy's fault. I'm convinced that this nation's greatest enemy are those who insist on seeing the glass as half empty, whatever their political persuasion.

By |May 9th, 2010|Financial Commentary - Public|

THE MARKET’S DOWN 1000 POINTS- DID SOMEONE GREECE THE SKIDS??

I love my clients!  Shortly after the market closed, on one of the wackiest days in memory, I shot out a reassuring e mail to my clients (reprinted below). Here is a sample of the responses that came back from some of them:

“Wow!  From my perspective you wrote the following and responded in less than a minute from the time I sent my email to you! “  

“Stay with it! You’re the man!!!”

“I know  you are on the job, and I trust your judgment. I rode out 1987 with you.”

“Thanks for the info you have been sending today Gary.  We have been trying to keep up with everything, but it is great to hear your explanations.  You certainly express yourself extremely well.”




Aren’t I somethin’ !?

But really, it feels good for me to  know I’m needed and respected for the work I do.



Now, for your interest, is my perspective on what is going on in the markets from the above referenced e mail sent to clients earlier today:

By |May 7th, 2010|Financial Commentary - Public|

 

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