Current Commentary

Amazing- yet another administration will dodge this minefield and pass it on to …us.

Obama’s What-Me-Worry Social Security Plan
Barron's | By Jim McTague
Leave the country’s biggest fiscal mess for the next guy. That is President Barack Obama’s strategy for addressing the disintegrating Social Security Trust Fund. The massive monument to Democratic Party progressivism, which comprises the $2.7 trillion Old-Age and Survivors Insurance program and the $70 billion Disability Insurance program, is on course to begin spilling red ink in 2019. Like prosperity, that’s just around the corner—beginning in the third year of our next president’s first term. The disability program will go red... Read More

Great article that reminds us how indolent and unresponsive are many corporate boardrooms. Just this AM, American Tower's (AMT) board disappointed when they were unable to provide deep color on a large purchase of cell phone towers from Verizon at what appear to be the lowest margins of any of this REIT's recent acquisitions. Perhaps they need to hear from activist investors as did Tim Cook shortly before announcing a share split, buy backs and dividend increases for Apple (AAPL) about a year ago (and look what that did for the stock!).

Capitalism’s unlikely heroes
Economist
AS INVENTIONS go, the public company is one of capitalism’s greatest. Initial public offerings promote innovation, by providing an exit route for entrepreneurs; being listed makes a firm open to scrutiny; and ordinary people have a chance to invest in capitalism’s wealth-creating machines. But the past 15 years have cast a shadow over the public company. There was not much sign of scrutiny or wealth creation in fiascos like Enron and Lehman Brothers. Governance has been weakened by the rise of passive index funds... Read More

I try to learn from the best, and Klarman whose 1992 book "Margin of Safety" now sells for $2,000 on Amazon is among the best. His simple rules are classic value thinking. He is willing to hold cash when the good companies are no longer available at bargain prices. We may be in such a time.

Seth Klarman: What I’ve learned from Warren Buffett
Financial Times | By Seth Klarman
As Warren Buffett was a student of Benjamin Graham, today we are all students of Warren Buffett. He has become wealthy and famous from his investing. He is of great interest, however, not because of these things but in spite of them. He is, first and foremost, a teacher, a deep thinker who shares in his writings and speeches the depth, breadth, clarity, and evolution of his ideas. Read More

"when you see tax increases, think pensions.”

The Pension Sink Is Gulping Billions in Tax Raises Remember that ‘temporary’ tax hike for California schools? Most is now going to public worker retirements.
The Wall Street Journal | By Steve Malanga
California Gov. Jerry Brown sold a $6 billion tax increase to voters in 2012 by promising that nearly half of the money would go to bolster public schools. Critics argued that much of the new revenue would wind up in California’s severely underfunded teacher pension system. They were right. Read More (subscription required)

GREAT analysis of the current supply driven oil glut. Very much along the lines of a presentation I gave for our clients in December. However low prices are likely to remain for longer than some of the analysts quoted herein expect. We appear to be in a "secular" bear market for energy that could last 15 to 20 years. Good for kickstarting the world economy!

Back to the Future? Oil Replays 1980s Bust
The Wall Street Journal | By Russell Gold
A surge of oil from outside of the Middle East flooded global energy markets. The world-wide thirst for crude didn’t keep up. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stood by and watched as oil prices fell and then fell more. Read More (subscription required)

"...it is remarkable to watch the same financial institutions that almost wrecked our nation’s economy work to heighten risks in the system." AGREE. Along with efforts to hand out cheap money to home buyers who cannot afford a home, the Federal government is moving us closer to an encore of the financial collapse of 2007-2009. I plan to chronicle this steady movement toward the next financial crisis with postings such as this. Although it may be many years distant, the next crisis is inevitable and leveraged banks and real estate will almost certainly be involved.

Kicking Dodd-Frank in the Teeth
NY Times | By Gretchen Morgenson Jan 19, 2015
The 114th Congress has been at work for less than a week, but a goal for many of its members is already evident: a further rollback of regulations put in place to keep markets and Main Street safe from reckless Wall Street practices. The attack began with a bill that narrowly failed in a fast-track vote on Wednesday in the House of Representatives. It is scheduled to come up again in the House this week. Read More