"Trust in God, but tie up your camel" attributed to the Muslim prophet Muhammed

"Though April showers come your way, they bring the flowers that bloom in May" as sung by Al Jolson in 1921

Suppose I told you about an investment that could lose you money but has a 97% likelihood of being profitable? Would you consider this an investment with good odds of success? According to most health experts who have been observing the progress of the Corona virus (AKA “Covid 19”), only 3% of those who contract the virus die. Looked at another way, 97% of those who contract it survive. For the 8 out of 10 who become infected, the course of the illness, for people in good health, is relatively mild. While I have no desire to minimize this health challenge we face, I cannot but wonder at the extent of the equity market swoon it has prompted. The media, the markets and many in government, education and the entertainment world are reacting as if this were something out of one of those apocalypse movies. Are they overreacting? Let’s examine. READ MORE

It was all smiles for investors in 2019, but despite the good news, we did not detect from our clients the emotional tenor that accompanies an over-valued bull market that is nearing a top. Roaring back from a fast but frightening fourth-quarter 2018 correction, both stock and bond markets had one of their best years of the past decade. Driving the market were growth stocks, especially Apple. Other technology favorites like Microsoft, Amazon and Google also shined. Our favorite cell phone tower companies, American Tower and Crown Castle did... READ MORE

The IRA Bait and Switch

Congress changes the rules—unless you die before New Year’s Day.

The IRA Bait and Switch by By The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal

The trouble for retirement accounts begins on page 643 of Congress’s behemoth spending bill, under the always ominous heading: “Title IV—Revenue Provisions.” That’s where lawmakers upended the meticulous […]

Report to clients for the quarter ending September 30, 2019

To date in 2019 equities have turned in their best performance for U.S. stock markets since 1997, quite an amazing result given a drumbeat of market-threatening news: tariff wars, major damage to Saudi oil production and likely impeachment hearings in the House of Representatives.

I rarely insert work of another economist here, but the article below, from a source I’ve respected and followed for decades is profound. It attempts to elucidate our current global financial dilemma and the ominous inability of leading monetary authorities to deal with the situation. This moment does not yet appear to be a […]

This commentary by Edward Yardeni, a talented economist is chilling. I’ve followed Yardeni for over 30 years and my clients have benefited thereby. He, like me, is uncomfortable with the likelihood of an inappropriate Federal funds cut later this month. Totally unnecessary and will hurt the dollar and may ignite a bubble in […]

Hooray for the Wall !!

No, we’re not talking about the controversial wall along the southern US border proposed by the Trump administration. We’re talking about the legendary “Wall of Worry“ that is said to give the most traction to a bull market. With nearly all economists in a recent […]

As of 3/31/2019

Mirror Image

We’ve just completed a very good three-month period for investors in liquid assets, one of the best quarters for equities in a decade and a healthy rebound for the bond market as well. This quarter was a mirror image of the prior quarter, which saw the markets briefly drop 20% before a […]

Year End Report to Clients for the period ended December 31, 2018

Most investors are glad the year 2018 is past. It was one of the most volatile in a decade, and some believe we have seen the end to a historic ten-year bull market that rose Phoenix-like from the panicked days of the Great […]

Improbably, U.S. stocks rose this past quarter, finally surmounting January’s record high, achieving yet another record. I say “improbably” because the summer is often a seasonally weak time for stocks, and the tone of acrimony and discord in the political arena had the potential to sap investor […]